There is little debate about the most valuable measurement in international education. Learning outcomes are the Brazil (circa 1970) of data.
But, is there a runner-up? You know, the Argentina or Germany of data? Lots of opinions on this, since we are all passionate about what we like to measure. So, let's add an objective criterion for selecting a second-tier runner-up: it must have a reasonable association with learning outcomes.
The Contenders
So, what about measures such as curriculum completion, pupil engagement, or fidelity of implementation? These are your England or Belgium of data. So much promise, but unfortunately, they struggle to live up to expectations. They have a poor association with learning outcomes, so much so that we refer to them as poor proxies of learning.
I'm not saying we shouldn't measure them; they're important as basic indicators of whether an education system is functioning as it should, but we often over-rely on these measures to describe progress and are then disappointed when improvements in learning outcomes don't follow quite as readily.
I have a candidate for the second data measure. Pupil attendance is my Argentina. Let me explain.
Why do so many children not attend school?
Quite a few years back, I was listening to a presentation given by the always fabulous Peggy Dubeck. She was presenting data for a longitudinal study tracking kids in Kenya and why they dropped out of school. To this day, I can still quote her word for word:
"I'm really sorry, guys, they were bored — they weren't learning anything!"
Honestly, this was not what I expected. If there is access to education, why would a kid not go to school? I had heard that the reasons why kids didn't go were to do with parents' conservative attitudes towards girls' education, boys having to work, and so on.
The pupil attendance challenge in Northern Nigeria
I've supported multiple education programs in different States of Northern Nigeria. Consistently, pupil attendance averages around 50%, and over 85% of Grade 2 children cannot read a single word. So, we surveyed parents. Their key concern was the quality of public schooling, not their attitude towards the value of an education. Many parents are very aware of basic schooling issues such as teacher attendance, teacher shortages, and a lack of books.
The path for many children in Northern Nigeria seems to follow this pattern: they are not learning in school, they lack an affordable alternative, and so leave school to use their time more productively. If the parents cannot afford low-cost private schooling, they put their child to better use, working and supporting their family in a variety of ways.
Prioritize and stabilize the education system
Some interesting data I've recently been introduced to suggests that if you can address the basic system inputs — such as teacher school reassignments, teacher attendance, and the availability of teaching and learning materials — pupil attendance can improve by as much as 25 percentage points.
It is these simple, visible measures that parents will always look to when deciding whether the school is meeting their child's needs. We spend a lot of time talking about what happens in a classroom. But in truth, we've got to measure and address the less exciting system issues first. It is futile to introduce a Foundational Literacy and Numeracy Program if a system cannot support it.
Pupil attendance as a proxy measure of equity
Education systems, when you think about it, are designed to address equity. The three ways they do this are through access to quality teaching and learning, targeted support, and responsiveness to gaps in learning and resources.
However, when an education system reports over 85% of children being unable to read, most children are disadvantaged. So, by addressing basic systems issues, we advance equity for a much larger number of children.
To address pupil attendance, we need to measure and address education systems' inputs early and frequently. Before we even train a single teacher, we should be ready to measure and address basic system functions that we know will impact pupil attendance. For example, parents will have much more confidence in a school system that has sufficient teachers present in the classroom. That's our selling point.
The reality is that most parents are not concerned about structured pedagogy or phonics instruction.